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Derek Simon – Chief Editor at USRacing – how incompetent can he be?

Horse racing is such a simple game……..

I'd hate to think that anyone could be so incompetent as to do it any real damage. But, as soon as I hear 30 seconds of Andy Serling, I realize the bar can be dropped to amazingly low levels, in order to accommodate a complete vacancy of common sense. Like Derek Simon, the poster boy for delusion, at least in the realm of horse racing.

Supposedly, Derek is some sort of researching data-base diver, looking for consistencies in thoroughbred handicapping in order to help others in their betting. Although he claims to be looking for consistencies, it appears that he is able to miss them year after year as they continue to be presented on a daily basis, to everyone. I like to think that no one could be this incompetent, since his job seems to be to help bettors understand how they might play the game of horse racing, well enough to enjoy it as a spectator sport. But, ….. on closer inspection, it appears that while Derek has been parroting the same old methods and antiquated beliefs of the last 50 years, what was once the #1 spectator sport in America has become a very small and self-centered minor sport that is all about the money for race-tracks and owners.

The biggest change in horse racing, of the past 50 years, is it's complete abandonment by the average John Q. Public patron.

DV IMAGE

The last form handicapper

Needless to say, the evidence is in on the amount of help Derek and his colleagues (I prefer ilk), have been on "helping" people to understand the horse racing game, and winning at it.

Of course, the job isn't to help you make a good betting decision, the job is to keep you MIS-informed as to what the horse racing game is about, at least on the side that is taking your bet. The game of horse racing is to get the public to bet on past performance, while the race today actually turns on the horse's ability today.

If people like Derek Simon do their job well, the race-track always knows ability much more, and much better than the public ever will. If that were not true, horse racing would be well-attended today, it is not.

But, don't take my word for it, let's take a look at Little Derek's race report card for Louisiana Downs for yesterday. The results prove that there is no connection between Derek's GPA rating (derived through form) and the performance of the horses.

We can easily see that by examining the longer-odds horses that did win yesterday at LaD, in the usual daily numbers (25 – 33%). Another consistency of horse racing that the Ilk is just totally blind to. Like the ML top 3 win 68% – NO MATTER WHAT ANYBODY DOES. The refusal to recognize these long-standing statistics does not erase them. The national average payoff for horse racing is 4 – 1. It has stood there for many decades. If anyone has a reliable method of "picking winners" by a criteria that was in-line with the realities of horse racing, the average payoff will be around $10.00. Most methods dreamed up by the insincere like Simon, are tilted toward the favorites, and the average $3.40 payoff.

Because they don't know what is actually going on in a horse race, and are trying to convince you that they do. Yes, that is the con-man's job description.

If the measurement, or method for betting them were sound, 25 – 33% of the resulting winners would be longer-odds horses. Little Derek misses the first one in the 2nd race. An event with only 5 to consider for betting.

Ability Obscured by

Ability Obscured by "Form"


 

The second opportunity comes in the 4th Race:

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Ability Obscured by "Form"

Then the third big opportunity comes in the 12th Race:

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Ability obscured by "form"

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